Box Office: 'Venom' Tops $600M Global, Is Bigger Than 'Spider-Man' (In China)

Venom earned around $44 million on its second day in China yesterday (Saturday thanks to time zone magic). That’s the fourth biggest Saturday ever for a Hollywood import, behind only Avengers: Infinity War ($78m), Fate of the Furious ($71m) and Transformers: The Last Knight ($47m). The Tom Hardy/Michelle Williams superhero flick has earned a remarkable $78.4m in two days, or near identical to the film’s $80m North American Fri-Sun frame.

It’s surely going to top $100 million for the weekend, making it the second-biggest launch for a superhero movie behind Avengers: Infinity War ($191m). For reference, a $107m weekend would put it above the lifetime Chinese totals of Logan ($106m), Black Panther ($105m), Wonder Woman ($90m) and every single Spider-Man movie thus far (Amazing Spider-Man 2 earned $94m in 2014). With a $1.27m Friday gross and likely $4.885m (-40%) sixth weekend, the $100m-budgeted Sony release will have $206.269m domestic (higher than Thor: The Dark World, Batman Begins and Superman Returns, sans inflation).

And with as much as $105 million in China, it could end tomorrow with (spitball math) around $665m worldwide. Yes, this one is sailing over $700 million global. If it legs out in China (they seem to love it thus far), we could be looking at an over/under $800m cume. That would put it above the Amazing Spider-Man movies ($758m in 2012 and $709m in 2014) and above Spider-Man 2 ($784m) and Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy ($773m in 2014) among other related milestones.

Here’s another crazy thought: While The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Aquaman and/or Mary Poppins Returns could flirt with $800 million worldwide, that’s no guarantee. So we technically could see a scenario where Venom out-grosses every year-end biggie in terms of global box office. If this all happens, and that’s a big “if,” then Venom may end up passing Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($792m) to end as the year’s fifth-biggest global grosser.

It will almost certainly pass Deadpool 2 ($734 million, with an R-rating and no China playdate), but I digress. And yes, this partially explains why Fox is experimenting with that PG-13 Once Upon A Deadpool recut. It’s not about placating Disney, it’s about seeing if they can make a coherent PG-13 version of Deadpool 2 that could theoretically play in China. And after this weekend, I don’t blame them for trying.

I've studied the film industry, both academically and informally, and with an emphasis in box office analysis, for 28 years. I have extensively written about all of said subjects for the last ten years. My outlets for film criticism, box office commentary, and film-skewing s...

 MORE

If you like what you're reading, follow @ScottMendelson on Twitter, and "like" The Ticket Booth on Facebook. Also, check out my archives for older work HERE.